Eliteserien · Matchweek 30
Lillestrøm
LIL
Tromsø
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lillestrøm25%
Draw27%
Tromsø47%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.52
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession52%
33%Territory36%
32%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.10
7.5%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for Tromsø. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.