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Eliteserien · Matchweek 30

Lillestrøm

LIL

Tromsø

TRO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lillestrøm25%
Draw27%
Tromsø47%

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.52

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.3%
  • 0112.0%
  • 129.3%
  • 008.6%
  • 028.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession52%
33%Territory36%
32%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.10
7.5%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for Tromsø. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.