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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 29

Kristiansund

KRI

Lillestrøm

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kristiansund33%
Draw24%
Lillestrøm43%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.81

Over 2.5

65%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 2–17.5%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Lillestrøm get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

44%Possession41%
41%Territory39%
20%From set plays38%
0.15Chance quality0.12
7.1%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kristiansund, 3 for Lillestrøm. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 200 matches, not the full season.