Eliteserien · Matchweek 29
Tromsø
TRO
Start
STA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tromsø59%
Draw23%
Start18%
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.97
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession45%
36%Territory40%
30%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.10
7.6%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tromsø, 3 for Start. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.