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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 29

Vålerenga

VLE

Rosenborg

ROS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vålerenga44%
Draw25%
Rosenborg31%

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.40

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession55%
47%Territory51%
33%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vålerenga, 3 for Rosenborg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.