Eliteserien · Matchweek 28
Lillestrøm
LIL
Hamarkameratene
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lillestrøm60%
Draw23%
HamKam17%
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession43%
39%Territory37%
38%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.07
6.2%Directness9.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for HamKam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 200 matches, not the full season.