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Eliteserien · Matchweek 28

Lillestrøm

LIL

Hamarkameratene

HAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lillestrøm51%
Draw25%
HamKam24%

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.12

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.4%
  • 1010.7%
  • 219.7%
  • 208.4%
  • 006.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession47%
33%Territory37%
32%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.09
7.5%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for HamKam. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.