Eliteserien · Matchweek 28
Lillestrøm
LIL
Hamarkameratene
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lillestrøm51%
Draw25%
HamKam24%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.12
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession47%
33%Territory37%
32%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.09
7.5%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for HamKam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.