Eliteserien · Matchweek 28
Start
STA
Sarpsborg 08
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Start37%
Draw28%
Sarpsborg 0835%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.32
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession43%
40%Territory40%
28%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.8%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Start, 3 for Sarpsborg 08. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.