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Eliteserien · Matchweek 28

Start

STA

Sarpsborg 08

SAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Start37%
Draw28%
Sarpsborg 0835%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.32

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.5%
  • 109.7%
  • 019.5%
  • 218.2%
  • 008.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession43%
40%Territory40%
28%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Start, 3 for Sarpsborg 08. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.