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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 26

Kristiansund

KRI

Vålerenga

VLE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kristiansund33%
Draw22%
Vålerenga46%

Expected goals

1.88 – 2.21

Over 2.5

76%

Both to score

76%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–27.8%
  • 1–17.4%
  • 2–27.3%
  • 2–16.5%
  • 1–35.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession49%
41%Territory50%
20%From set plays21%
0.15Chance quality0.13
7.1%Directness7.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kristiansund, 4 for Vålerenga. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 200 matches, not the full season.