Eliteserien · Matchweek 26
Hamarkameratene
HAM
Sarpsborg 08
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
HamKam27%
Draw29%
Sarpsborg 0844%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.35
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession43%
37%Territory40%
37%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.11
7.2%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for HamKam, 3 for Sarpsborg 08. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.