Eliteserien · Matchweek 26
Lillestrøm
LIL
Aalesund
AAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lillestrøm56%
Draw22%
Aalesund22%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.29
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lillestrøm get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession35%
39%Territory31%
38%From set plays12%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.2%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lillestrøm, 3 for Aalesund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 200 matches, not the full season.