Eliteserien · Matchweek 25
Start
STA
Lillestrøm
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Start45%
Draw25%
Lillestrøm30%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.40
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession44%
40%Territory33%
28%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.8%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Start, 3 for Lillestrøm. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.