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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 25

Fredrikstad

FRE

Rosenborg

ROS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fredrikstad44%
Draw27%
Rosenborg29%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.16

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.4%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession55%
42%Territory51%
30%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fredrikstad, 3 for Rosenborg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.