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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 24

Sarpsborg 08

SAR

Rosenborg

ROS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sarpsborg 0842%
Draw28%
Rosenborg30%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.16

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 0–19.1%
  • 0–08.9%
  • 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Rosenborg will have the ball; Sarpsborg 08 will not mind.

43%Possession55%
40%Territory51%
25%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sarpsborg 08, 3 for Rosenborg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.