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Eliteserien · Matchweek 24

Sandefjord

SAN

Lillestrøm

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sandefjord38%
Draw28%
Lillestrøm34%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.32

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.3%
  • 109.5%
  • 018.9%
  • 218.5%
  • 127.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession44%
34%Territory33%
17%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.13
7.5%Directness7.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sandefjord, 3 for Lillestrøm. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.