Eliteserien · Matchweek 23
Aalesund
AAL
Sarpsborg 08
SAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aalesund38%
Draw28%
Sarpsborg 0835%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.33
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession43%
46%Territory40%
11%From set plays25%
0.11Chance quality0.11
6.4%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aalesund, 3 for Sarpsborg 08. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.