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Eliteserien · Matchweek 23

Fredrikstad

FRE

Tromsø

TRO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fredrikstad32%
Draw31%
Tromsø37%

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.17

Over 2.5

38%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.4%
  • 0112.7%
  • 0012.1%
  • 1011.4%
  • 127.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession52%
42%Territory36%
30%From set plays30%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fredrikstad, 3 for Tromsø. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.