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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eliteserien · Matchweek 22

Vålerenga

VLE

Fredrikstad

FRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vålerenga41%
Draw28%
Fredrikstad32%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.23

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession49%
47%Territory42%
33%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vålerenga, 3 for Fredrikstad. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 160 matches, not the full season.