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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38

Bahia

BAH

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bahia43%
Draw23%
Atlético-MG33%

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.68

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

70%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.2%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–05.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bahia get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

42%Possession48%
35%Territory44%
38%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.3%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.