Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Athletico Paranaense
ATH
São Paulo
SOP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Athletico Paranaense38%
Draw29%
São Paulo34%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.24
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession50%
48%Territory40%
28%From set plays28%
0.08Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletico Paranaense, 3 for São Paulo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Athletico Paranaense
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.