Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Grêmio
GRM
Mirassol
MIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grêmio49%
Draw23%
Mirassol29%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.54
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
69%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 1–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Grêmio get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession49%
38%Territory34%
50%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.5%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grêmio, 3 for Mirassol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mirassol
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 329 matches, not the full season.