Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Palmeiras
PAL
Coritiba
COR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palmeiras73%
Draw17%
Coritiba11%
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.91
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Coritiba get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession44%
42%Territory37%
7%From set plays33%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palmeiras, 3 for Coritiba. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 329 matches, not the full season.