Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Santos
SAN
Botafogo
BOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santos45%
Draw24%
Botafogo31%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.52
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession57%
46%Territory46%
8%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Santos, 4 for Botafogo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.