Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Vasco da Gama
VAS
Vitória
VIT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vasco da Gama47%
Draw27%
Vitória26%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.14
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Vasco da Gama will have the ball; Vitória will not mind.
60%Possession48%
43%Territory29%
14%From set plays68%
0.08Chance quality0.14
4.1%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vasco da Gama, 3 for Vitória. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Vitória
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 329 matches, not the full season.