Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 38
Flamengo
FLA
Chapecoense
CHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Flamengo87%
Draw9%
Chapecoense4%
Expected goals
3.27 – 0.63
Over 2.5
74%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-2.50
Most likely scorelines
- 3–011.9%
- 2–011.2%
- 4–09.5%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Flamengo will have the ball; Chapecoense will not mind.
60%Possession40%
47%Territory38%
25%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.07
4.3%Directness8.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Flamengo, 4 for Chapecoense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 329 matches, not the full season.