Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 37
Chapecoense
CHA
Palmeiras
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chapecoense9%
Draw17%
Palmeiras74%
Expected goals
0.78 – 2.42
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–37.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chapecoense get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
40%Possession48%
38%Territory42%
24%From set plays7%
0.07Chance quality0.13
8.8%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Chapecoense, 3 for Palmeiras. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chapecoense
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.