Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 37
Coritiba
COR
Flamengo
FLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coritiba14%
Draw19%
Flamengo68%
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.38
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.4%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–37.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Flamengo will have the ball; Coritiba will not mind.
44%Possession60%
37%Territory47%
33%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Coritiba, 3 for Flamengo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 329 matches, not the full season.