Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 37
Atlético-MG
ATL
Vasco da Gama
VAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG41%
Draw25%
Vasco da Gama34%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.55
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Vasco da Gama will have the ball; Atlético-MG will not mind.
48%Possession60%
44%Territory43%
21%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Vasco da Gama. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.