Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Chapecoense
CHA
Cruzeiro
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chapecoense43%
Draw24%
Cruzeiro33%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.55
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession54%
38%Territory41%
27%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chapecoense, 3 for Cruzeiro. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chapecoense
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.