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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36

Chapecoense

CHA

Cruzeiro

CRU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Chapecoense15%
Draw18%
Cruzeiro67%

Expected goals

1.11 – 2.43

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.6%
  • 0–28.7%
  • 1–17.9%
  • 1–37.7%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Cruzeiro will have the ball; Chapecoense will not mind.

40%Possession56%
38%Territory47%
24%From set plays6%
0.07Chance quality0.14
8.8%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Chapecoense, 4 for Cruzeiro.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.