Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Bahia
BAH
Coritiba
COR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bahia68%
Draw16%
Coritiba16%
Expected goals
3.07 – 1.60
Over 2.5
83%
Both to score
76%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–17.3%
- 3–17.3%
- 3–25.8%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession49%
37%Territory34%
36%From set plays41%
0.20Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 3 for Coritiba. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.