Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Bahia
BAH
Coritiba
COR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bahia42%
Draw25%
Coritiba33%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.54
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession44%
35%Territory36%
38%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 4 for Coritiba. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.