Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Atlético-MG
ATL
Corinthians
COI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG29%
Draw26%
Corinthians45%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.63
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession54%
44%Territory52%
21%From set plays8%
0.13Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Corinthians. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.