Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Atlético-MG
ATL
Corinthians
COI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG50%
Draw27%
Corinthians23%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.97
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–09.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession53%
39%Territory44%
18%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.1%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Corinthians. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.