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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36

RB Bragantino

RBB

Vasco da Gama

VAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

RB Bragantino30%
Draw25%
Vasco da Gama45%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.69

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–18.4%
  • 2–17.2%
  • 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession50%
48%Territory54%
16%From set plays17%
0.07Chance quality0.10
8.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Bragantino, 3 for Vasco da Gama. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.