Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Santos
SAN
Grêmio
GRM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Santos62%
Draw22%
Grêmio16%
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.94
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession56%
39%Territory36%
37%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.05
4.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Santos, 4 for Grêmio. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Santos
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.