Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Botafogo
BOT
São Paulo
SOP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Botafogo41%
Draw28%
São Paulo31%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.20
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession50%
46%Territory40%
21%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Botafogo, 3 for São Paulo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.