Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 36
Botafogo
BOT
São Paulo
SOP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Botafogo37%
Draw29%
São Paulo34%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.24
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession44%
43%Territory39%
24%From set plays33%
0.07Chance quality0.12
6.0%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Botafogo, 3 for São Paulo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
São Paulo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.