Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Coritiba
COR
Santos
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coritiba34%
Draw23%
Santos44%
Expected goals
1.77 – 2.02
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
73%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession50%
34%Territory39%
41%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.17
8.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Coritiba, 3 for Santos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.