Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Grêmio
GRM
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grêmio54%
Draw21%
Bahia25%
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.53
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–05.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession42%
38%Territory35%
50%From set plays38%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.5%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grêmio, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.