Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Grêmio
GRM
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grêmio20%
Draw21%
Bahia59%
Expected goals
1.21 – 2.14
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–36.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession56%
36%Territory37%
24%From set plays36%
0.05Chance quality0.20
5.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grêmio, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.