Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Cruzeiro
CRU
Palmeiras
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cruzeiro24%
Draw23%
Palmeiras53%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.97
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession59%
41%Territory42%
24%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
3.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cruzeiro, 3 for Palmeiras. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.