Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Cruzeiro
CRU
Palmeiras
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cruzeiro32%
Draw23%
Palmeiras45%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.92
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
69%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession48%
47%Territory42%
6%From set plays7%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.9%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cruzeiro, 3 for Palmeiras. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.