Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Mirassol
MIR
Atlético-MG
ATL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mirassol48%
Draw23%
Atlético-MG29%
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.50
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
34%Territory44%
17%From set plays21%
0.08Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mirassol, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mirassol
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.