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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35

Mirassol

MIR

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mirassol34%
Draw27%
Atlético-MG39%

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.47

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.1%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mirassol get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession52%
49%Territory39%
37%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mirassol, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.