Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
São Paulo
SOP
Fluminense
FLU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
São Paulo41%
Draw27%
Fluminense32%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.26
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fluminense will have the ball; São Paulo will not mind.
50%Possession67%
40%Territory51%
28%From set plays19%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.2%Directness2.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for São Paulo, 3 for Fluminense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.