Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 35
Flamengo
FLA
Athletico Paranaense
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Flamengo72%
Draw17%
Athletico Paranaense11%
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.85
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.4%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession57%
47%Territory48%
25%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Flamengo, 4 for Athletico Paranaense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Athletico Paranaense
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.