Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
Chapecoense
CHA
Mirassol
MIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chapecoense45%
Draw25%
Mirassol30%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.35
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
38%Territory49%
27%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chapecoense, 4 for Mirassol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chapecoense
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.