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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34

Athletico Paranaense

ATH

Vasco da Gama

VAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletico Paranaense40%
Draw25%
Vasco da Gama36%

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.62

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 1–27.9%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Vasco da Gama will have the ball; Athletico Paranaense will not mind.

42%Possession50%
40%Territory54%
30%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.10
7.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Athletico Paranaense, 3 for Vasco da Gama. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.