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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34

Athletico Paranaense

ATH

Vasco da Gama

VAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletico Paranaense45%
Draw27%
Vasco da Gama29%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.22

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

57%Possession60%
48%Territory43%
28%From set plays14%
0.08Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletico Paranaense, 3 for Vasco da Gama. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.