Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
Cruzeiro
CRU
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cruzeiro68%
Draw17%
Bahia15%
Expected goals
2.83 – 1.39
Over 2.5
78%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.2%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–25.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cruzeiro will have the ball; Bahia will not mind.
56%Possession42%
47%Territory35%
6%From set plays38%
0.14Chance quality0.10
4.9%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cruzeiro, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.