Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
Cruzeiro
CRU
Bahia
BAH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cruzeiro33%
Draw21%
Bahia45%
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.25
Over 2.5
77%
Both to score
77%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–16.4%
- 2–35.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession56%
41%Territory37%
24%From set plays36%
0.13Chance quality0.20
3.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cruzeiro, 3 for Bahia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.