Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
RB Bragantino
RBB
Santos
SAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Bragantino41%
Draw21%
Santos38%
Expected goals
2.23 – 2.17
Over 2.5
80%
Both to score
79%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession52%
45%Territory46%
10%From set plays8%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for RB Bragantino, 3 for Santos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.