Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
São Paulo
SOP
Corinthians
COI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
São Paulo37%
Draw29%
Corinthians35%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.24
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
São Paulo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession54%
40%Territory52%
28%From set plays8%
0.12Chance quality0.07
5.2%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for São Paulo, 3 for Corinthians. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.