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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34

Botafogo

BOT

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Botafogo52%
Draw24%
Atlético-MG24%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.21

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 2–07.9%
  • 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Botafogo will have the ball; Atlético-MG will not mind.

57%Possession48%
46%Territory44%
21%From set plays21%
0.07Chance quality0.13
4.7%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Botafogo, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 329 matches, not the full season.