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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34

Botafogo

BOT

Atlético-MG

ATL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Botafogo37%
Draw29%
Atlético-MG34%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.21

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 0–09.6%
  • 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Atlético-MG will have the ball; Botafogo will not mind.

42%Possession52%
43%Territory39%
24%From set plays18%
0.07Chance quality0.13
6.0%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Botafogo, 3 for Atlético-MG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.