Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 34
Flamengo
FLA
Grêmio
GRM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Flamengo82%
Draw13%
Grêmio5%
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.54
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
39%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–014.9%
- 3–012.6%
- 1–011.9%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession56%
51%Territory36%
13%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.05
3.0%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Flamengo, 4 for Grêmio.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.