Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 33
Bahia
BAH
São Paulo
SOP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bahia50%
Draw23%
São Paulo27%
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.44
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bahia will have the ball; São Paulo will not mind.
56%Possession44%
37%Territory39%
36%From set plays33%
0.20Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bahia, 3 for São Paulo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
São Paulo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.