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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 33

Grêmio

GRM

Athletico Paranaense

ATH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grêmio27%
Draw26%
Athletico Paranaense47%

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.66

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–27.3%
  • 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Grêmio will have the ball; Athletico Paranaense will not mind.

56%Possession42%
36%Territory40%
24%From set plays30%
0.05Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grêmio, 3 for Athletico Paranaense. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.