Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 33
Atlético-MG
ATL
Cruzeiro
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético-MG50%
Draw24%
Cruzeiro26%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.31
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
39%Territory41%
18%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.13
4.1%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Atlético-MG, 3 for Cruzeiro. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético-MG
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.