Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 33
Corinthians
COI
Mirassol
MIR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Corinthians42%
Draw27%
Mirassol32%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.30
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mirassol get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession55%
44%Territory49%
15%From set plays37%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.4%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Corinthians, 4 for Mirassol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.