Brasileirão Série A · Matchweek 32
Vitória
VIT
Athletico Paranaense
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Vitória39%
Draw26%
Athletico Paranaense34%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.42
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
37%Possession42%
43%Territory40%
32%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.11
9.1%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Vitória, 3 for Athletico Paranaense. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Athletico Paranaense
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 267 matches, not the full season.